U.S. commercial real estate is priced at the market and earned at the asset.
One analytical question per morning. Sources disclosed. Methodology disclosed. Reader-supported.
New briefings publish weekday mornings, U.S. Eastern. Next issue: Monday, May 11.
A weekday research note covering U.S. commercial real estate — cap rates, deal flow, leasing fundamentals, and capital movement. Each issue runs roughly 600–900 words, leads with a single analytical question the print is obscuring, and closes with the underlying data and methodology. The briefing is open access.
A working Excel companion that tracks U.S. cap rates across Office (CBD/suburban), Retail (power center, grocery-anchored, strip), Industrial (Class A, flex), Multifamily (A/B/C), and Hospitality. Quarterly history, sector spreads, and an editable input column for in-house comps. Updated quarterly; methodology disclosed inside the workbook.
CBD vs. suburban spreads, trophy/value-add bifurcation, sublet absorption, lease-rollover risk, and the recapitalization pipeline.
Class A and flex pricing, replacement-cost dynamics, insurance reset, port-market absorption, and last-mile vs. bulk distribution.
Power-center, grocery-anchored, and unanchored strip cap rates; tenant credit migration; rollover and leasing fundamentals.
Class A/B/C cap rate movement, supply pipeline absorption, rent growth by submarket, and refi/maturity risk in the floating-rate book.
Select-service vs. full-service spreads, RevPAR recovery, brand/franchise dynamics, and the post-PIP cap-ex overhang.
Delivered weekday mornings, U.S. Eastern. Includes the Cap Rate Tracker.